Summary — what happened
Two adjacent public agencies near San Diego International Airport run on audited revenue models that assume passengers drive or rent a car. In fiscal year 2025, SDCRAA booked $81.6M in parking and ground transportation, $85.2M in concessions (including rental-car concessions), and $36.5M in rental-car Customer Facility Charges — $203.2M, roughly 43% of its $472.9M in total revenues. SD-ACFR-25 The Port booked $117.8M (55.2%) in real estate plus $18.8M in parking, roughly 64% of its $213.4M operating revenue. Port-ACFR-25 A 2020–2021 COVID collapse — parking fell from $62.8M (FY19) to $27.4M (FY21), CFC from $41.9M to $15.8M — while bond debt service held, quantifying the vulnerability any capital decision must underwrite. SD-ACFR-19 SD-ACFR-21
On July 1, 2019, SDCRAA signed a ten-year Airline Operating and Lease Agreement (AOLA) running through June 30, 2029. Under it the airlines hold consent rights on any ground-access capital project exceeding $350M — a threshold every fixed-guideway airport connector crosses, since SANDAG's 2023 study priced light-rail options between $1.1B and $1.7B (full concept range $46M to ~$6B). SD-AOLA SANDAG-2023 The same lease carries a $515M airline transit pledge: $75M unconditional, plus $125M and $150M contingent on regional matching funds, plus $165M for the North Harbor Drive corridor; $275M of it expires unmatched in 2029. Axios-2024 [10News-2019] California Government Code §170000 et seq. (2001) assigns 3 of 9 SDCRAA voting seats to the Mayor of San Diego; as of April 2026 all three are Todd Gloria appointees (Lydia Ball, Daniel Kuperschmid, Marni von Wilpert), and the initial December 2020 Gloria slate included Gil Cabrera and Johanna Schiavoni. SD-Board Gloria-2020
The region has studied airport transit roughly fifteen times in forty years and, after Measure G failed in November 2024, was reported paring down its seven 2023 concepts for lack of funding rather than selecting one. VOSD-2021 KPBS-2024 SANDAG-2023 The federal Capital Investment Grants formula documented in Part 3 — which favored the concentrated-ridership UCSD corridor over Pacific Beach — has never scored a San Diego airport connector, because no application has been filed. FTA-CIG DB Inferred: the structural pattern is that the agency that owns the airport (SDCRAA) has no line item to match the airline pledge and a revenue model a connector would erode, so the project is studied but never sponsored (a characterization of the audited financials and statute, not a legal finding; no agency has been found to have acted unlawfully).
Timeline
Original Blue Line spur dropped. Original light-rail plans contemplated a spur to Lindbergh Field; per the VOSD retrospective the spur was abandoned amid freight-line and adjacent-air-station channel conflicts. The current Middletown station sits 1,200 feet from the terminal — the closest the built system came.
The ten-year AOLA. SDCRAA and ten major airlines execute the Airline Operating and Lease Agreement, effective through June 30, 2029. Airfield costs run on residual rate-setting (recovered from airlines); terminal space on compensatory rate-setting; airlines hold consent rights on any ground-access capital project exceeding $350M. [10News-2019]
The $515M airline transit pledge announced. Reported alongside the pact: airlines commit $515M toward regional transit access — later detailed (Axios, 2024) as $75M unconditional, $125M contingent on a $200M regional match, $150M contingent on a further $150M match, and $165M for the North Harbor Drive multi-modal corridor. [10News-2019]
SANDAG funds preliminary scoping; "nothing more to study.". Reported alongside the pact: SANDAG's board allocates $40M for preliminary environmental analysis of a fixed-guideway airport connection. Then-SANDAG Executive Director Hasan Ikhrata is on record: "We have done 10, 15 studies, there is nothing more to study." [10News-2019]
Pre-COVID revenue baseline. SDCRAA FY19: parking $62.8M, rental-car Customer Facility Charges $41.9M; combined ground-access-linked revenue ~46% of total operating revenue.
Gloria's first SDCRAA appointments. Mayor Todd Gloria announces his initial slate of Mayor's-office SDCRAA board appointees, including Gil Cabrera (later elevated to Board Chair) and Johanna Schiavoni. The mayor holds 3 of 9 voting-seat appointments under Cal. Gov. Code §170000.
VOSD retrospective. Voice of San Diego publishes "The Airport Connects San Diego to the World, But Not to the Trolley," cataloguing the 40-year study-and-shelve cycle across administrations.
COVID revenue floor. SDCRAA FY21: parking $27.4M (down 56% from FY19), CFC $15.8M (down 62%) — a −$35.4M collapse in parking alone — while scheduled bond debt service on the Series 2014/2017/2019/2020/2021 revenue bonds was unchanged. (Callback: the FY19 baseline above.)
SANDAG concept-evaluation study. SANDAG's Airport Transit Connection Concept Evaluation Study evaluates seven concepts (five automated-people-mover variants, one trolley extension, one bus-rapid-transit alignment), capital cost range $46M (BRT) to ~$6B (premium APM); light-rail options priced $1.1B–$1.7B. No preferred alternative is selected.
Port comparative baseline. Port of San Diego FY23 ACFR provides the comparative baseline for real-estate and parking revenue growth into FY25.
Axios details the pledge structure and deadline. Axios San Diego reports the AOLA transit-pledge tranche structure and that the contingent airline funds approach a deadline tied to the 2029 lease expiry; $275M is contingent on a regional match the region has not assembled.
Measure G fails. The countywide half-cent transit-and-roads measure fails (reported ~51.7% to 48.2%), removing the regional funding source that was to match the airline pledge. (Fact stated in the KPBS post-election reporting below; vote share is characterization per source.)
SANDAG pares down options for lack of funding. KPBS reports SANDAG is narrowing the seven-option concept list because funding for the preferred tiers is unavailable — not to select a preferred alternative.
Current revenue composition. SDCRAA FY25: total operating revenue $434.2M; parking & ground transportation $81.6M (18.8%); concessions $85.2M (19.6%); rental-car CFC $36.5M (nonoperating). Combined ground-access-linked revenue $203.2M ≈ 43% of $472.9M total revenues. Port FY25: total operating revenue $213.4M; real estate $117.8M (55.2%); parking $18.8M; maritime $51.8M — combined monetized bayfront land access ~64%.
Current board composition. SDCRAA roster: 9 voting seats + 3 ex-officio non-voting. Three Mayor-of-San-Diego appointees (Ball, Kuperschmid, von Wilpert — all Gloria selections); two County Board of Supervisors appointees (incl. Montgomery Steppe); four regional-mayor caucus seats.
Revenue composition (the ground-access share)
The "43%" and "~64%" figures aggregate legally distinct revenue lines that share one assumption: passengers drive to the airport or rent a car there.
- SDCRAA FY25 — $203.2M of $472.9M (~43%): parking & ground transportation $81.6M + concessions (incl. rental-car) $85.2M + rental-car Customer Facility Charge $36.5M. SD-ACFR-25
- Port FY25 — ~64% of $213.4M operating revenue: real estate $117.8M (55.2%, incl. tideland rents, hotel and convention-center parking concessions, rental-car staging lots) + direct parking $18.8M. Port-ACFR-25
- The COVID natural experiment (FY19 → FY21): all three SDCRAA ground-access lines collapsed together — parking −56%, CFC −62%, concessions roughly halved — a quantified vulnerability for any capital decision that would shift trips off the parking model. SD-ACFR-19 SD-ACFR-21
| Revenue line | FY19 (pre-COVID) | FY21 (COVID floor) | FY25 (recovery) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parking & ground transportation | $62.8M | $27.4M | $81.6M | SD-ACFR-19 SD-ACFR-21 SD-ACFR-25 |
| Concessions (incl. rental-car) | $64.3M | $29.0M | $85.2M | SD-ACFR-19 SD-ACFR-21 SD-ACFR-25 |
| Customer Facility Charges (nonop.) | $41.9M | $15.8M | $36.5M | SD-ACFR-19 SD-ACFR-21 SD-ACFR-25 |
| Combined ground-access revenue | ~$169.0M | ~$72.2M | $203.2M | SD-ACFR-19 SD-ACFR-21 SD-ACFR-25 |
| Share of total operating revenue | ~46% | ~37% | ~43% | SD-ACFR-25 (derived) |
FY19 and FY21 concessions and combined-line figures are as reconstructed in the source report from the respective ACFRs; see Caveats on aggregation.
The AOLA — common reading vs. contract text
| Common reading | Contract / disclosure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Airlines pledged $515M toward airport transit | $75M unconditional; $275M contingent on a regional match (expires unmatched in 2029); $165M tied to North Harbor Drive | Axios-2024 [10News-2019] |
| Airlines are partners in getting transit to the airport | Airlines hold consent rights on any ground-access project over $350M; every viable fixed-guideway option crosses it | SD-AOLA SANDAG-2023 |
| Ten years gives the region time to plan | Five years in, SANDAG is paring down options for lack of funding, not selecting one | KPBS-2024 |
Inferred: under residual rate-setting, a shortfall in non-airline revenue flows back to airline landing fees, giving airlines a contractual interest in every decision that could shrink the parking/concession base — an indirect, not explicit, lever (a reading of the lease structure, not a legal finding; the AOLA does not grant a parking-revenue veto on its face). SD-AOLA
Governance / appointment chain
| Seat allocation (Cal. Gov. Code §170000) | Seats | Current holders | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayor of San Diego appointees | 3 of 9 | Ball, Kuperschmid, von Wilpert (all Gloria) | SD-Board Gloria-2020 |
| County Board of Supervisors Chair appointees | 2 of 9 | incl. Montgomery Steppe | SD-Board |
| Regional-mayor caucus seats | 4 of 9 | one each: N. County Coastal/Inland, East, South | SD-Board |
| Ex-officio (non-voting) | 3 | — | SD-Board |
Inferred: the mayor's one-third appointment share, combined with an audited revenue model the agency exists to steward, gives the board no structural incentive to reduce ground-access revenue or sponsor a connector (a structural reading of statute and financials, not a claim of personal conflict; no Form 700 in the record substantiates a rental-car, parking, or hotel conflict for the three current Mayor appointees). SD-Board SD-ACFR-25
Studies vs. sponsors
- ~15 studies over ~40 years, all commissioned by SANDAG (which does not own the airport); SDCRAA (which does) has commissioned none. VOSD-2021 [10News-2019]
- 2019: SANDAG allocates $40M for preliminary environmental analysis. [10News-2019]
- 2023: SANDAG evaluates seven concepts, selects none. SANDAG-2023
- 2024-12: SANDAG pares the list for lack of funding after Measure G's failure. KPBS-2024
- FTA CIG pipeline: the Mid-Coast (UCSD) corridor appears in the FY17 cohort and reached a Full Funding Grant Agreement; no San Diego airport connector appears in any CIG annual report. The Part 3 cost-effectiveness formula favored concentrated-ridership terminals over dispersed coastal corridors. FTA-CIG
Inferredthe same formula would never be asked to score a SAN connector because no agency sponsor has filed an application — an absence-of-record observation, not a legal finding. DB
Key players
- Todd Gloria — Mayor of San Diego; statutorily appoints 3 of 9 SDCRAA voting seats; all three current appointees are his selections, and his 2020 slate included Cabrera and Schiavoni. SD-Board Gloria-2020
- Lydia Ball, Daniel Kuperschmid, Marni von Wilpert — current Mayor-appointed SDCRAA voting board members (Gloria appointees). SD-Board
- Gil Cabrera — initial December 2020 Gloria SDCRAA appointee; later Board Chair. Subject of a separate MathPolitics thread (prior FPPC warning letter / New San Diego PAC) — not the subject of this report. Gloria-2020
- Johanna Schiavoni — initial December 2020 Gloria SDCRAA appointee. Gloria-2020
- Monica Montgomery Steppe — among the two County Board of Supervisors-appointed SDCRAA seats. SD-Board
- Hasan Ikhrata — then-SANDAG Executive Director; source of the 2019 "10, 15 studies, nothing more to study" statement [10News-2019]; departed SANDAG in December 2023 DB.
- SDCRAA — owns the airport; carries the 43% ground-access revenue dependency; AOLA counterparty; the FTA CIG sponsor-of-record that has never filed. SD-ACFR-25 SD-AOLA
- Port of San Diego — controls the surrounding bayfront land; ~64% revenue dependency on monetized land access. Port-ACFR-25
- SANDAG — study sponsor and prospective FTA CIG applicant; ~15 studies, no funded sponsor-of-record. VOSD-2021 SANDAG-2023
Caveats
- Nothing in this brief is alleged to be illegal. No agency, official, or appointee has been found to have acted unlawfully; the subject is the legal structure — statute, lease terms, and audited revenue models.
- The "43%" figure aggregates three legally distinct revenue lines (parking/ground transport, concessions including rental-car, and rental-car Customer Facility Charges) and is computed against FY25 total revenues of $472.9M — operating revenue of $434.2M plus nonoperating revenue, of which the $36.5M rental-car CFC is the ground-access component (the remaining ~$2.2M of nonoperating revenue is non-ground-access and is not part of the $203.2M numerator). It is a characterization of the revenue base, not an audited single line item. SD-ACFR-25
- The "~64%" Port figure aggregates real estate (which itself bundles tideland rents, hotel/convention parking concessions, and rental-car staging) plus direct parking. Port-ACFR-25
- FY19/FY21 concessions and combined-line figures are reconstructed in the source report from the respective ACFRs; precise line definitions vary year to year.
- "No structural incentive to sponsor a connector," "consent rights as an indirect veto," and the studies-without-a-sponsor pattern are characterizations of the documented financials, statute, and lease structure — not legal findings, and no ethics body has ruled on any of them.
- Measure G's failure and its ~51.7%–48.2% vote share are stated as reported; no specific ballot measure has ever funded a SAN airport connector.
- The claim that no San Diego airport connector has been submitted to the FTA CIG pipeline is an absence-of-record observation drawn from published CIG annual reports; MathPolitics has no pending records request affirmatively confirming the absence.
- Gil Cabrera's separate thread (FPPC warning letter / New San Diego PAC) is documented elsewhere and is not adjudicated here.
Reference key
- SD-ACFR-25 San Diego County Regional Airport Authority, Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, FY ended June 30, 2025 (revenue composition). Evidence E-23915. https://www.san.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/FY25-ACFR-FINAL-spread-v2.pdf
- SD-AOLA SDCRAA FY25 ACFR, Note on Regulated Leases — Airline Operating & Lease Agreement (effective 2019-07-01, expires 2029-06-30; residual/compensatory rate-setting; airline consent rights on ground-access projects > $350M). Evidence E-23918. https://www.san.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/FY25-ACFR-FINAL-spread-v2.pdf#aola
- SD-ACFR-19 SDCRAA Comprehensive Annual Financial Report, FY ended June 30, 2019 (pre-COVID baseline: parking $62.8M, CFC $41.9M). Evidence E-23916. https://www.san.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Comprehensive-Annual-Financial-Report-CAFR-for-the-Fiscal-Year-ended-June-30-2019.pdf
- SD-ACFR-21 SDCRAA Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, FY ended June 30, 2021 (COVID floor: parking $27.4M, CFC $15.8M; debt service unchanged). Evidence E-23917. https://www.san.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Annual-Comprehensive-Financial-Report-for-the-Fiscal-Year-Ended-June-30-2021-min.pdf
- Port-ACFR-25 San Diego Unified Port District, Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, FY ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 (total operating revenue $213.4M; real estate $117.8M; parking $18.8M; maritime $51.8M). Evidence E-23920. https://pantheonstorage.blob.core.windows.net/administration/ACFR-FY-ended-June-30-2025-and-2024.pdf
- Port-ACFR-23 San Diego Unified Port District, Annual Comprehensive Financial Report FY ended June 30, 2023 (comparative baseline). Evidence E-23921. https://pantheonstorage.blob.core.windows.net/administration/2023-ACFR-final.pdf
- SD-Board SDCRAA Board of Directors — composition and appointment structure (9 voting + 3 ex-officio; 3 Mayor of SD, 2 County BOS, 4 regional-mayor caucus seats; 2026 roster). Evidence E-23922. https://www.san.org/airport-authority-board-members/
- Gloria-2020 Office of the Mayor, City of San Diego, "Mayor Gloria announces initial SDCRAA appointments" (December 2020; Cabrera, Schiavoni, and others). Evidence E-23923. https://www.sandiego.gov/mayor/mayor-gloria-announces-appointments-airport-authority-board
- 10News-2019 10News San Diego, "Airlines, airport enter 10-year pact: $515M for transit access projects" (2019-07-01; records the $40M SANDAG allocation and Ikhrata "10, 15 studies" statement). Evidence E-23919. https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/san-diego-airport-airlines-enter-10-year-pact-to-fund-transit-projects
- SANDAG-2023 San Diego Association of Governments, Airport Transit Connection Concept Evaluation Study (2023-07-14; seven concepts, $46M–~$6B range, no preferred alternative). Evidence E-23924. https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/projects-and-programs/featured-projects/central-mobility-hub/atc-concept-evaluation-study-2023-07-14.pdf
- VOSD-2021 Voice of San Diego, "The Airport Connects San Diego to the World, But Not to the Trolley" (2021-08-23; 40-year study-and-shelve retrospective). Evidence E-23925. https://voiceofsandiego.org/2021/08/23/the-airport-connects-san-diego-to-the-world-but-not-to-the-trolley/
- Axios-2024 Axios San Diego, "Airline $515M transit commitment deadline approaching" (2024-09-11; tranche structure: $75M unconditional + $125M + $150M contingent + $165M N. Harbor Drive). Evidence E-23926. https://www.axios.com/local/san-diego/2024/09/11/san-diego-airport-transit-connection-lose-funding-southwest-alaska-airlines
- KPBS-2024 KPBS, "With Limited Funding, SANDAG Seeks to Pare Down Options for Airport Transit Connection" (2024-12-09; post-Measure-G). Evidence E-23880. https://www.kpbs.org/news/economy/2024/12/09/with-limited-funding-sandag-seeks-to-pare-down-options-for-airport-transit-connection
- FTA-CIG Federal Transit Administration, Mid-Coast Corridor (UCSD) project profiles, CIG Annual Reports on Funding Recommendations (FY17 cohort; Medium-High at FFGA), establishing the Part 3 cost-effectiveness formula. Evidence E-23897, E-23898, E-23899 (Mid-Coast FY17/FY22/AR23 profiles); peer cohort E-23900; GAO-23-105479 E-23901. https://web.archive.org/web/20161124094215/https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/docs/CA__San_Diego_Mid-Coast_Corridor_Profile_FY17.pdf
- DB MathPolitics database connection/evidence IDs as cited in the full report
the-trolley-question-part-4(thread 86), including the absence-of-record finding that no San Diego airport connector appears in the FTA CIG pipeline. → view in evidence search
Report #70 · The Trolley Question (Part 4 of 4) · condensed AI fact sheet. Chronological; every claim cited; inferences flagged. Source: full report the-trolley-question-part-4 (thread 86).
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