Proposition 38 — immunology research bonds

What a YES vote does

YES lets the state borrow $8.4 billion for immunology research, with half reserved for one UC-affiliated nonprofit institute.

Official vote explanation, November 2026 edition; publication day unstated; retrieved 2026-10-05.

What a NO vote does

NO rejects this $8.4 billion research bond.

Official vote explanation, November 2026 edition; publication day unstated; retrieved 2026-10-05.

Cost and money

The current official analysis estimates $500 million–$600 million annually for about 20 years.

Research licensing revenue might offset costs, but its amount and timing are uncertain. The campaign's no-taxpayer-cost claim is not the official estimate.

Official fiscal analysis, November 2026 edition; publication day unstated; retrieved 2026-10-05.

Who put it on the ballot

Initiative petition; certified June 25, 2026.

Official qualified list, undated, retrieved 2026-10-05; Secretary Shirley Weber's certification release, 2026-06-25. Weber is the certifying official, not the measure's sponsor. June 25 is certification, not a claim that every legislative vote occurred that day.

A rule that matters

Half the funding is directed to a qualifying UC-affiliated nonprofit institute; half supports research grants.

Potential discoveries are not guaranteed returns.

Official analysis and law, November 2026 edition; publication day unstated; retrieved 2026-10-05.

Who is paying

SOS daily chart: Yes $38,201,946.00; No $292,399.00. Quick Guide, undated daily snapshot retrieved 2026-10-05. The chart applies election-cycle/allied-transfer adjustments. Committee exports below use their own records and may include later receipts, shared campaigns, intermediary money and nonmonetary support. Differences remain unreconciled; do not add them or treat the chart as a committee balance.

Yes: Yes on 38: Californians for Life-Saving Immunology Research and Cures, sponsored by the Michelson Center for Public Policy, 1485847

$51,208,971.20 in captured itemized receipts. Periodic records through 2026-09-15: $38,201,946.50; added later receipts: $13,007,024.70. Cal-Access filer #1485847, late receipts, retrieved 2026-10-05.

Of Michelson's $33.2 million, $14.2 million was reported as loans (Apr. 20, $2.2 million, PAY87; Aug. 31, $12 million, PAY215). All $13 million from the Michelson Center was reported as loans (July 31, $11 million, PAY168; Aug. 24, $2 million, PAY184). Michelson's Sept. 30 $13 million late report does not show whether it is a loan. Captured periodic records; late report.

Only 4 positive donor identities appear in the captured itemized records; no extra names invented.

Captured periodic export; captured late export. Aliases combine only where a contributor ID matches; negative adjustments remain negative. Named affiliated groups may appear separately.

No — remaining finance uncertainty

The official Quick Guide shows $292,399 on the No side. Its largest individual entries are The Fund for Santa Barbara $291,759 (September 22), California Health Policy Strategies LLC $390 (September 11), and Laurence Lang $250 (August 18), 2026. These are individual entries, not a verified aggregate top-five ranking. The recipient committee ID and full filing records remain unverified. Source, retrieved 2026-10-05.

Why: who benefits

Funded institutes and researchers receive resources; patients could benefit from successful research.

Gary Michelson and his named policy center dominate support receipts. The official analysis documents a concentrated institutional allocation; it does not itself establish a donor's personal financial return. The official opposition argument cites Scott Wiener as the author of an alternative research-agency proposal; this is an attributed argument reference, not proof that his proposal became law.

Official law and analysis, November 2026 edition; publication day unstated; retrieved 2026-10-05; committee/interest declarations and dated receipts above. Endorsement claims are identified as claims in the official arguments. The published arguments are the signers' opinions, not agency-verified findings.

Existing database, checked 2026-10-05: Secretary of State organization #15343; Shirley Weber politician #100 (certification role only). Funder rows above link the recorded find and resolve results, including exact entity IDs. Near matches were not merged; profiles and prior evidence are leads, not proof about this measure. Lookup custody.

Our view — opinion

What remains unknown

Money received after the captured filings, unfiled late receipts, unitemized donor detail, ultimate sources behind intermediaries, and a full reconciliation between SOS adjusted totals and gross committee receipts remain unknown. Donor rankings aggregate captured receipts within a committee; they do not rank ultimate wealth owners. Loans are identified separately where available.